Frontier Forecast Arena

Live community median

Forecast the next OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models.

Read the crowd first. Then predict whether Astra and Fable 5.1 will launch, their prices, benchmark scores, and Artificial Analysis output-token efficiency at Max reasoning.

Sign in to save forecasts, build an Elo history, and enter the prize. Your email stays private. Privacy notice

Inaugural prize for the #1 eligible forecaster

A digital card loaded with up to US$100 for one month of ChatGPT Pro 5x or Claude Max 5x. Forecasts lock October 30, 2026 at 23:59:59 UTC. Organizer-funded; not sponsored by OpenAI or Anthropic. Rules

Community call

Astra

Compared with GPT-5.6 Sol

Community call

Fable 5.1

Compared with Claude Fable 5

Think the median is wrong?

Your draft stays private until you publish it.

Your Max forecast

Astra

Compared with GPT-5.6 Sol

Start here

Will Astra become a public model?

Public means generally available through an official API or first-party paid product by October 31, 2026—not a rumor, preview, or announcement.

If public, under which generation label?

Snapshot reference anchor

GPT-5.6 Sol

Source
AA Intelligence v4.1.1
60.9
HLE (%)
49.5
Terminal-Bench v4 (%)
37.27
AA output tokens / task
16,879
Input / output
$4 / $20

Predict the price

One model-level pair. Max reasoning does not create a separate token rate.

Make four Max calls

Max reasoning

Your estimate and the current reference stay in the same row.

Max reasoning benchmarks

Terminal-Bench v4 is a model plus named agent result. Forecast the best official Max pairing, not bare model weights.

Release thesis

Public-launch structure is required; confidence is optional.

If Astra is public, what lineup will launch?
How does Astra relate to Sol?
When does Astra arrive relative to the family?

Publish your call

Sign in to publish

Signing in stores your ChatGPT account email privately for account ownership and prize fulfillment. It is never shown on your public profile.